Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 789 at 09:31 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 789 DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 690 DEN 16:28 → DCA 21:59 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 789 United Flight history →	DEN 09:31	DCA 15:00	16%	5%	0.6%	91%
F9 686 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:30	DCA 12:51	18%	5%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
F9 688 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:25	DCA 16:59	31%	9%	0.8%	78%
F9 690 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:28	DCA 21:59	43%	20%	1.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON