Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 5361 at 07:54 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–49%.

Safest bet that day OO 5361 DEN 07:54 → DSM 10:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4597 DEN 18:50 → DSM 21:39 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5361 SkyWest	DEN 07:54	DSM 10:47	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	DEN 09:41	DSM 12:30	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
F9 1678 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:52	DSM 10:48	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
WN 4206 Southwest	DEN 11:00	DSM 13:49	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1311 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	DSM 16:15	23%	8%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
UA 1213 United	DEN 21:09	DSM 00:05	37%	17%	0.7%	no record
UA 549 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	DSM 20:30	43%	20%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
WN 4597 Southwest	DEN 18:50	DSM 21:39	49%	17%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON