Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1745 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 1745 DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1583 DEN 19:34 → DTW 00:25 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1745 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:05	DTW 10:54	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1915 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	DTW 14:26	13%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 1113 Delta	DEN 10:59	DTW 15:46	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 3566 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:23	DTW 15:17	17%	5%	0.7%	91%
WN 1582 Southwest	DEN 11:00	DTW 15:43	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:59	DTW 19:49	24%	10%	0.6%	83%
F9 4186 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:59	DTW 23:59	41%	15%	1.0%	68%
UA 1220 United Flight history →	DEN 17:47	DTW 22:43	42%	14%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
WN 1583 Southwest	DEN 19:34	DTW 00:25	48%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON