tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 470 at 14:48, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 470 Southwest DEN 14:48 ECP 18:50 34% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 7h 09m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 7h 57m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → DEN 12:07 → ATL 17:07DL 995 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494 7h 39m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → ECP 16:15UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 33m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 5h 38m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → DEN 15:10 → ATL 20:22DL 957 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 7h 27m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 6h 03m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → DEN 14:18 → CLT 19:29AA 1662 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 22:55 → ECP 23:37AA 5633 · flown by PSA 8h 19m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:10 → ECP 21:28AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 5h 17m 47% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON