Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1845 at 10:27 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1845 DEN 10:27 → ELP 12:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 333 DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1845 Southwest	DEN 10:27	ELP 12:20	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2128 United	DEN 11:22	ELP 13:15	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:41	ELP 18:41	40%	14%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
WN 1586 Southwest	DEN 21:35	ELP 23:28	46%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 333 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ELP 21:11	47%	15%	0.7%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON