Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1548 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 1548 DEN 08:30 → EUG 10:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4411 DEN 20:55 → EUG 22:40 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1548 Southwest	DEN 08:30	EUG 10:19	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 318 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	EUG 12:57	23%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DEN 19:35	EUG 21:21	38%	13%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
WN 4411 Southwest	DEN 20:55	EUG 22:40	39%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON