Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2345 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–45%.

Safest bet that day UA 2345 DEN 06:00 → EWR 11:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2613 DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2345 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	EWR 11:49	6%	2%	0.8%	96%
UA 1745 United Flight history →	DEN 00:08	EWR 05:27	9%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2640 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	EWR 13:27	13%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 2381 United Flight history →	DEN 10:09	EWR 16:10	26%	9%	0.8%	81%
UA 1283 United Flight history →	DEN 12:40	EWR 18:35	34%	14%	0.8%	71%
UA 1233 United Flight history →	DEN 11:39	EWR 17:31	36%	13%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
UA 2093 United Flight history →	DEN 19:17	EWR 01:09	41%	14%	1.1%	78%worse than usual
UA 1505 United Flight history →	DEN 13:41	EWR 19:35	43%	16%	0.8%	70%worse than usual
UA 1715 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	EWR 21:29	45%	18%	0.8%	66%worse than usual
UA 2613 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	EWR 23:44	45%	15%	0.9%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON