Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 12m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	DEN 17:57 → SEA 19:48AS 615	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → FAI 01:21 +1AS 351	9h 24m	97%	61%
Alaska Details →	DEN 08:45 → SEA 10:47AS 317	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 12:00 → FAI 14:45AS 96	8h 00m	79%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DEN 18:39 → SEA 20:41DL 2543	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186	7h 51m	48%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON