Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5975 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 5975 DEN 07:40 → FSD 10:23 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 645 DEN 17:28 → FSD 20:08 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5975 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:40	FSD 10:23	12%	4%	0.6%	94%
UA 4759 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	FSD 12:35	17%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 5378 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	FSD 16:23	26%	8%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
OO 309 SkyWest	DEN 21:01	FSD 23:47	29%	14%	1.0%	no record
OO 5229 SkyWest	DEN 15:34	FSD 18:17	34%	12%	1.7%	no record
UA 645 United Flight history →	DEN 17:28	FSD 20:08	43%	17%	1.1%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON