Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1591 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1591 DEN 08:40 → GEG 10:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1592 DEN 20:49 → GEG 22:18 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1591 Southwest	DEN 08:40	GEG 10:10	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 295 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	GEG 12:37	17%	7%	0.6%	83%
OO 5859 SkyWest	DEN 13:31	GEG 15:06	18%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 778 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	GEG 21:05	39%	14%	0.7%	71%worse than usual
WN 1592 Southwest	DEN 20:49	GEG 22:18	41%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON