Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 6041 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day OO 6041 DEN 07:51 → GJT 08:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 431 DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6041 SkyWest	DEN 07:51	GJT 08:59	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 4704 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	GJT 10:44	13%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1714 United Flight history →	DEN 11:24	GJT 12:31	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 5488 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	GJT 14:40	19%	7%	0.9%	86%
OO 5491 SkyWest	DEN 21:03	GJT 22:04	33%	10%	1.7%	no record
OO 498 SkyWest	DEN 16:37	GJT 17:45	36%	13%	1.2%	no record
UA 431 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	GJT 20:34	37%	13%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON