tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 384 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 HNL 15:13 21% 7% 0.6% 82%
UA 1805 United Flight history → DEN 16:00 HNL 19:13 39% 14% 0.6% 72%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 10h 28m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 43m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:57 → LAX 07:25UA 1093 1h 40m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 9h 56m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638 3h 41m Los Angeles LAX 13:13 → HNL 16:17UA 1224 12h 17m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 12h 04m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 12h 18m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 3h 48m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 11h 59m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 10h 35m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 51m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 8h 57m 66% 50%
DeltaDetails → DEN 13:54 → SEA 15:42DL 1358 53m Seattle SEA 16:35 → HNL 19:53DL 419 9h 59m 59% 41%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 17:56 → SEA 19:46AS 615 1h 04m Seattle SEA 20:50 → HNL 23:49AS 268 9h 53m 53% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON