Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1595 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 1595 DEN 06:00 → HOU 09:29 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1478 DEN 16:20 → HOU 19:49 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1595 Southwest	DEN 06:00	HOU 09:29	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 1355 Southwest	DEN 07:50	HOU 11:19	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1597 Southwest	DEN 11:00	HOU 14:28	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4525 Southwest	DEN 13:45	HOU 17:13	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3433 Southwest	DEN 22:31	HOU 01:54	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 1600 Southwest	DEN 20:35	HOU 00:04	40%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 1478 Southwest	DEN 16:20	HOU 19:49	44%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON