Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 6020 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 6020 DEN 07:45 → ICT 10:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1614 DEN 18:50 → ICT 21:22 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6020 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ICT 10:16	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 5497 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	ICT 12:27	14%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 5454 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:59	ICT 16:34	23%	8%	0.7%	85%
WN 2554 Southwest	DEN 11:25	ICT 13:57	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4753 SkyWest	DEN 15:29	ICT 18:02	28%	13%	0.7%	no record
UA 4755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:09	ICT 23:44	30%	14%	1.0%	80%worse than usual
UA 1788 United	DEN 17:39	ICT 20:11	40%	19%	0.6%	no record
WN 1614 Southwest	DEN 18:50	ICT 21:22	44%	18%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON