Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5374 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 5374 DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 391 DEN 19:05 → IDA 20:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5374 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	IDA 09:50	14%	6%	1.3%	87%
UA 2383 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	IDA 13:25	22%	8%	1.1%	72%
OO 4722 SkyWest	DEN 13:52	IDA 15:47	24%	9%	0.9%	no record
OO 735 SkyWest	DEN 15:34	IDA 17:17	28%	15%	1.0%	no record
OO 391 SkyWest	DEN 19:05	IDA 20:50	37%	16%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON