Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1615 at 07:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 1615 DEN 07:33 → IND 12:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1624 DEN 18:42 → IND 23:10 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1615 Southwest	DEN 07:33	IND 12:02	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1522 United Flight history →	DEN 09:58	IND 14:35	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
WN 2649 Southwest	DEN 10:30	IND 14:59	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2346 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:37	IND 15:13	22%	7%	0.6%	78%
UA 1228 United	DEN 13:27	IND 17:57	26%	12%	0.6%	no record
F9 2348 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:35	IND 20:08	39%	12%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
UA 8205 United	DEN 17:49	IND 22:27	42%	17%	0.6%	no record
WN 1623 Southwest	DEN 16:25	IND 20:54	45%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 1624 Southwest	DEN 18:42	IND 23:10	48%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON