Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5730 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 5730 DEN 08:05 → JAC 09:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 785 DEN 19:08 → JAC 20:44 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5730 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	JAC 09:46	11%	4%	1.3%	94%
UA 2193 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	JAC 12:46	20%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 1537 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	JAC 15:25	24%	6%	0.8%	85%
UA 2200 United Flight history →	DEN 16:20	JAC 17:53	35%	12%	1.0%	73%
UA 785 United	DEN 19:08	JAC 20:44	39%	12%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON