Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1451 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1451 DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 4704 DEN 15:05 → JAX 20:26 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1451 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	JAX 15:39	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 3927 United	DEN 11:02	JAX 16:29	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1485 United Flight history →	DEN 16:07	JAX 21:40	35%	14%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
WN 4704 Southwest	DEN 15:05	JAX 20:26	37%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON