Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 336 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 336 DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 1498 DEN 14:09 → JFK 20:11 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 336 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:35	JFK 12:27	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 532 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:10	JFK 18:25	21%	9%	0.7%	85%
B6 1498 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 14:09	JFK 20:11	37%	18%	1.5%	74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 18:32 → MSP 21:34DL 1220	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 23:15 → JFK 01:32 +1DL 2692	5h 00m	86%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON