Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 958 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–54%.

Safest bet that day WN 958 DEN 06:12 → LAS 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1639 DEN 17:45 → LAS 18:44 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 958 Southwest	DEN 06:12	LAS 07:10	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1634 Southwest	DEN 07:29	LAS 08:28	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1629 Southwest	DEN 08:24	LAS 09:22	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2316 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	LAS 09:07	9%	3%	0.5%	94%
UA 1767 United Flight history →	DEN 09:30	LAS 10:30	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
F9 2349 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:20	LAS 08:24	13%	5%	0.8%	74%
WN 469 Southwest	DEN 10:57	LAS 11:56	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1993 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:00	LAS 11:07	18%	7%	0.7%	81%
UA 526 United Flight history →	DEN 11:22	LAS 12:24	19%	6%	0.6%	83%
WN 1635 Southwest	DEN 11:57	LAS 12:55	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 493 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	LAS 14:26	31%	11%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
F9 4967 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:47	LAS 13:47	35%	12%	0.8%	72%
F9 777 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	LAS 23:29	36%	17%	1.3%	74%
WN 1637 Southwest	DEN 12:47	LAS 13:45	36%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2424 United	DEN 16:10	LAS 17:22	40%	18%	0.6%	no record
WN 1638 Southwest	DEN 15:10	LAS 16:09	42%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 624 United Flight history →	DEN 20:54	LAS 21:53	44%	18%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
UA 1953 United	DEN 19:55	LAS 20:55	45%	18%	0.7%	no record
UA 655 United Flight history →	DEN 19:05	LAS 20:08	47%	20%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
WN 1640 Southwest	DEN 20:08	LAS 21:07	49%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 1642 Southwest	DEN 21:00	LAS 21:59	52%	14%	0.8%	no record
F9 1765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:31	LAS 19:35	54%	22%	1.4%	77%worse than usual
WN 1639 Southwest	DEN 17:45	LAS 18:44	54%	18%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON