Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1093 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–54%.

Safest bet that day UA 1093 DEN 05:32 → LAX 07:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2106 DEN 18:45 → LAX 20:13 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1093 United Flight history →	DEN 05:32	LAX 07:03	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1638 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	LAX 09:32	13%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 2002 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:31	LAX 09:00	15%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:12	LAX 12:58	16%	7%	0.6%	93%
UA 405 United Flight history →	DEN 10:02	LAX 11:34	16%	5%	0.6%	91%
WN 1843 Southwest	DEN 08:35	LAX 10:01	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6284 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:03	LAX 08:31	18%	5%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
F9 2797 Frontier	DEN 08:59	LAX 10:31	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1013 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	LAX 13:17	22%	7%	0.6%	87%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:29	LAX 13:56	22%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 774 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	LAX 14:57	25%	9%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
WN 3585 Southwest	DEN 11:20	LAX 12:47	26%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2341 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:04	LAX 14:37	26%	8%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
UA 1195 United Flight history →	DEN 15:43	LAX 17:15	30%	14%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
F9 4339 Frontier	DEN 22:38	LAX 00:13	33%	12%	0.9%	no record
OO 4948 SkyWest	DEN 18:38	LAX 20:07	38%	17%	0.8%	no record
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	DEN 19:57	LAX 21:30	39%	16%	0.9%	67%
UA 531 United Flight history →	DEN 21:20	LAX 22:55	40%	16%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
UA 1753 United	DEN 17:50	LAX 19:27	41%	20%	0.6%	no record
UA 1460 United	DEN 19:59	LAX 21:29	44%	20%	0.6%	no record
WN 4484 Southwest	DEN 16:10	LAX 17:37	46%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 3987 Southwest	DEN 21:10	LAX 22:38	49%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 2106 Southwest	DEN 18:45	LAX 20:13	54%	16%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON