Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 398 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–53%.

Safest bet that day DL 398 DEN 07:35 → LGA 13:19 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 472 DEN 18:00 → LGA 23:34 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 398 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:35	LGA 13:19	13%	5%	1.0%	87%
WN 3233 Southwest	DEN 07:05	LGA 12:44	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 1442 United Flight history →	DEN 08:03	LGA 13:57	14%	5%	0.8%	89%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	LGA 15:46	20%	8%	0.7%	83%
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LGA 16:47	24%	7%	1.0%	80%
UA 598 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	LGA 17:17	26%	10%	0.7%	72%
UA 1579 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	LGA 19:53	30%	12%	0.7%	71%
WN 2890 Southwest	DEN 10:05	LGA 15:43	31%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 2168 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LGA 21:54	37%	17%	0.8%	67%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	DEN 17:45	LGA 23:38	39%	13%	1.5%	70%
UA 2033 United Flight history →	DEN 17:35	LGA 23:30	40%	13%	0.8%	60%
WN 1652 Southwest	DEN 13:15	LGA 18:53	42%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 472 Southwest	DEN 18:00	LGA 23:34	53%	14%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON