Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1906 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 1906 DEN 05:40 → MCI 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4147 DEN 17:28 → MCI 20:14 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1906 Southwest	DEN 05:40	MCI 08:25	4%	1%	1.8%	no record
WN 2920 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:35	MCI 10:21	7%	1%	1.2%	53%
OO 4756 SkyWest	DEN 07:55	MCI 10:44	12%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 2159 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	MCI 12:30	12%	3%	1.7%	88%
WN 2512 Southwest	DEN 10:42	MCI 13:26	15%	3%	1.6%	no record
UA 586 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MCI 16:22	24%	7%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
OO 4760 SkyWest	DEN 15:45	MCI 18:51	28%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 1666 Southwest	DEN 22:30	MCI 01:14	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2109 Southwest	DEN 15:05	MCI 17:50	35%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 163 Southwest	DEN 21:31	MCI 00:20	38%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	DEN 20:40	MCI 23:25	40%	13%	0.8%	67%
UA 2793 United Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MCI 20:43	42%	15%	0.7%	56%
F9 3376 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:48	MCI 19:40	44%	14%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
WN 2665 Southwest	DEN 19:15	MCI 21:55	48%	13%	0.8%	no record
WN 4147 Southwest	DEN 17:28	MCI 20:14	48%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON