Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1667 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 1667 DEN 05:05 → MCO 10:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2520 DEN 19:20 → MCO 01:13 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1667 Southwest	DEN 05:05	MCO 10:41	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 1437 United	DEN 05:57	MCO 11:37	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 4646 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MCO 11:47	9%	4%	0.9%	86%
WN 1979 Southwest	DEN 07:40	MCO 13:16	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2292 United Flight history →	DEN 08:10	MCO 13:57	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
UA 2354 United Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MCO 16:04	20%	8%	1.0%	85%
UA 501 United Flight history →	DEN 13:48	MCO 19:39	27%	13%	1.0%	73%
F9 3312 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:36	MCO 16:30	31%	11%	1.1%	74%
WN 2137 Southwest	DEN 14:39	MCO 20:12	39%	10%	1.1%	no record
UA 259 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	MCO 23:41	39%	13%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
WN 1671 Southwest	DEN 19:00	MCO 00:34	40%	13%	0.8%	no record
F9 2520 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:20	MCO 01:13	42%	18%	1.4%	68%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	47m Atlanta	ATL 12:58 → MCO 14:28DL 1576	5h 13m	80%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON