Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4425 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 4425 DEN 06:25 → MDW 09:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2775 DEN 18:30 → MDW 21:55 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4425 Southwest	DEN 06:25	MDW 09:50	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1675 Southwest	DEN 08:25	MDW 11:49	7%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1676 Southwest	DEN 13:11	MDW 16:36	27%	7%	4.7%	no record
WN 3073 Southwest	DEN 16:02	MDW 19:27	40%	13%	3.8%	no record
WN 3047 Southwest	DEN 20:22	MDW 23:46	42%	13%	1.7%	no record
WN 2775 Southwest	DEN 18:30	MDW 21:55	44%	15%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON