Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2250 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 2250 DEN 10:35 → MEM 13:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4249 DEN 19:40 → MEM 23:02 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2250 Southwest	DEN 10:35	MEM 13:57	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2789 United	DEN 11:00	MEM 14:29	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2130 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	MEM 20:56	42%	15%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
WN 4249 Southwest	DEN 19:40	MEM 23:02	48%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON