tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 337 at 11:20 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 49%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 337 United Flight history → DEN 11:20 MFR 13:05 26% 5% 0.6% 75%
UA 663 United Flight history → DEN 19:31 MFR 21:17 49% 12% 0.8% 79%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13DL 2544 3h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 99% 86%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 11:59 → SEA 13:51AS 682 3h 56m Seattle SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon 8h 14m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 17:57 → SEA 19:48AS 615 2h 52m Seattle SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 7h 07m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731 2h 52m Seattle SEA 11:18 → MFR 12:59DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DEN 18:01 → SLC 19:33DL 1623 3h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 90% 77%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 3h 44m San Francisco SFO 10:37 → MFR 12:04UA 2322 7h 49m 100% 67%
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 3h 39m San Francisco SFO 21:09 → MFR 22:34UA 1219 7h 47m 96% 67%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 18m San Francisco SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51UA 5706 · flown by SkyWest 7h 30m 99% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 1h 29m San Francisco SFO 21:09 → MFR 22:34UA 1219 5h 40m 72% 50%
DeltaDetails → DEN 18:39 → SEA 20:41DL 2543 54m Seattle SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest 5h 32m 33% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON