Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1292 at 00:06 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 50%.

Safest bet that day AA 1292 DEN 00:06 → MIA 06:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1280 DEN 18:53 → MIA 00:57 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1292 American	DEN 00:06	MIA 06:08	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1418 United Flight history →	DEN 09:29	MIA 15:24	33%	7%	3.0%	76%
AA 1310 American	DEN 12:31	MIA 18:40	42%	12%	1.1%	no record
WN 1782 Southwest	DEN 12:30	MIA 18:18	48%	10%	1.8%	no record
UA 445 United	DEN 16:08	MIA 22:01	50%	18%	0.9%	no record
F9 1280 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:53	MIA 00:57	50%	16%	1.4%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON