Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1836 at 09:57 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–49%.

Safest bet that day UA 1836 DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 4356 DEN 18:50 → MKE 22:10 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1836 United Flight history →	DEN 09:57	MKE 13:25	13%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 2656 Southwest	DEN 10:30	MKE 13:49	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4718 SkyWest	DEN 13:24	MKE 16:48	29%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1684 Southwest	DEN 14:00	MKE 17:20	30%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 4766 SkyWest	DEN 20:35	MKE 00:20	35%	13%	0.8%	no record
OO 560 SkyWest	DEN 17:33	MKE 20:56	43%	15%	0.8%	no record
WN 4356 Southwest	DEN 18:50	MKE 22:10	49%	17%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON