Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2273 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 2273 DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1541 DEN 17:45 → MSY 21:34 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2273 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	MSY 13:39	13%	3%	0.7%	89%
F9 2360 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:07	MSY 10:10	13%	4%	1.0%	81%
WN 3419 Southwest	DEN 10:50	MSY 14:36	20%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 250 United Flight history →	DEN 13:41	MSY 17:25	27%	8%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
WN 4149 Southwest	DEN 14:20	MSY 18:06	33%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 1467 Southwest	DEN 19:25	MSY 23:09	45%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 1541 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	MSY 21:34	46%	16%	0.8%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON