tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Newark, leaving 00:08, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 00:08 → EWR 05:40UA 1745 1h 59m Newark EWR 07:39 → MYR 09:38UA 1067 7h 30m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 5h 15m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 00:05 → IAD 05:47UA 1924 2h 28m Dulles IAD 08:15 → MYR 09:59UA 4236 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 54m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:09 → PHL 12:58AA 516 3h 21m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 9h 18m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377 2h 11m Chicago ORD 11:53 → MYR 15:03UA 623 7h 03m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 7h 45m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573 2h 36m Charlotte CLT 14:40 → MYR 15:53AA 1687 7h 12m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640 2h 28m Newark EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic 8h 23m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 14:18 → CLT 19:29AA 1662 1h 32m Charlotte CLT 21:01 → MYR 22:13AA 1085 5h 55m 75% 53%
DeltaDetails → DEN 16:35 → ATL 21:49DL 840 51m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 5h 20m 54% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON