tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1736 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 OGG 15:05 21% 10% 0.7% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 9h 30m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:57 → LAX 07:25UA 1093 1h 35m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → OGG 11:46UA 417 9h 49m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 56m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 40m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 10h 53m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 19m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:20 → OGG 14:10AA 123 13h 10m 99% 68%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 07:22 → SEA 08:47AS 317 1h 28m Seattle SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929 9h 57m 90% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 47m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 8h 54m 59% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON