Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 6029 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 6029 DEN 08:00 → OKC 10:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1184 DEN 17:31 → OKC 20:11 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6029 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	OKC 10:47	10%	4%	0.7%	97%
UA 5324 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	OKC 13:01	14%	6%	0.7%	90%
WN 3723 Southwest	DEN 10:25	OKC 13:10	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4391 Southwest	DEN 13:10	OKC 15:55	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1656 United	DEN 13:27	OKC 16:10	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2169 Southwest	DEN 14:45	OKC 17:27	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 4727 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:42	OKC 23:29	31%	16%	0.9%	76%
F9 1928 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:52	OKC 19:42	36%	16%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
WN 1748 Southwest	DEN 18:50	OKC 21:35	42%	18%	0.7%	no record
UA 1184 United Flight history →	DEN 17:31	OKC 20:11	42%	18%	0.7%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON