Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 510 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–46%.

Safest bet that day OO 510 DEN 07:59 → OMA 10:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4423 DEN 19:40 → OMA 22:17 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 510 SkyWest	DEN 07:59	OMA 10:40	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 143 Southwest	DEN 10:26	OMA 13:03	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1633 United	DEN 10:13	OMA 12:58	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2847 Southwest	DEN 12:16	OMA 14:53	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 4802 SkyWest	DEN 15:45	OMA 18:39	21%	13%	0.7%	no record
UA 2327 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	OMA 16:24	25%	8%	0.6%	84%
UA 1436 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	OMA 20:42	42%	17%	0.7%	66%
UA 1787 United Flight history →	DEN 21:12	OMA 23:50	42%	16%	1.2%	68%worse than usual
WN 1707 Southwest	DEN 17:31	OMA 20:08	43%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 4423 Southwest	DEN 19:40	OMA 22:17	46%	14%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON