Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3001 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 3001 DEN 08:50 → ONT 10:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1712 DEN 18:30 → ONT 19:58 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3001 Southwest	DEN 08:50	ONT 10:16	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2907 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:45	ONT 10:04	17%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 430 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	ONT 12:47	18%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 2592 Southwest	DEN 12:40	ONT 14:07	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 1261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	ONT 23:50	34%	12%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
WN 1713 Southwest	DEN 20:52	ONT 22:20	42%	13%	0.7%	no record
UA 2028 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ONT 20:42	45%	16%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
WN 1712 Southwest	DEN 18:30	ONT 19:58	45%	14%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON