Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1377 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 1377 DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1352 DEN 18:31 → ORD 21:51 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1377 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	ORD 09:42	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1928 United Flight history →	DEN 07:39	ORD 11:08	12%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	ORD 11:43	13%	5%	0.6%	88%
AA 2771 American Flight history →	DEN 07:16	ORD 11:00	14%	6%	0.8%	88%
AA 1229 American	DEN 08:13	ORD 11:45	19%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 2329 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	ORD 13:15	20%	7%	0.7%	84%
MQ 3964 Envoy	DEN 09:03	ORD 12:38	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2559 American Flight history →	DEN 10:39	ORD 14:18	31%	14%	1.9%	83%worse than usual
UA 2865 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	ORD 14:55	31%	15%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
UA 377 United Flight history →	DEN 20:36	ORD 00:03	41%	18%	0.9%	80%worse than usual
UA 617 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	ORD 17:05	41%	19%	1.1%	68%
AA 2363 American Flight history →	DEN 12:37	ORD 16:14	43%	21%	1.7%	78%worse than usual
UA 2258 United Flight history →	DEN 19:17	ORD 22:50	48%	23%	0.8%	71%worse than usual
UA 2426 United	DEN 14:40	ORD 18:19	49%	25%	0.9%	no record
UA 1023 United Flight history →	DEN 15:01	ORD 18:46	50%	28%	0.8%	61%worse than usual
F9 3174 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 20:57	ORD 00:32	50%	22%	2.0%	68%worse than usual
UA 1411 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	ORD 21:31	53%	26%	0.9%	50%
UA 675 United Flight history →	DEN 16:29	ORD 20:14	54%	29%	1.1%	58%worse than usual
AA 1277 American	DEN 14:35	ORD 18:12	54%	28%	1.6%	no record
UA 2272 United	DEN 18:06	ORD 21:34	56%	26%	1.0%	no record
UA 1131 United Flight history →	DEN 16:48	ORD 20:19	57%	31%	1.2%	71%worse than usual
AA 1317 American	DEN 18:02	ORD 21:33	58%	29%	1.6%	no record
UA 1352 United	DEN 18:31	ORD 21:51	58%	26%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON