Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1715 at 13:40 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1715 Southwest	DEN 13:40	ORF 19:13	28%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 680 United Flight history →	DEN 17:58	ORF 23:33	39%	13%	0.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:14DL 2925	6h 29m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → ORF 15:34DL 1101	6h 19m	96%	79%
United Details →	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	3h 13m Dulles	IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677	7h 51m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	DEN 15:10 → ATL 20:22DL 957	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 23:45 → ORF 01:19 +1DL 2338	8h 09m	97%	76%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:14 → ORF 14:29AA 2282	7h 29m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	6h 33m	88%	73%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 12:05 → ORF 15:19UA 2807	7h 19m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:07 → ATL 17:07DL 995	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984	7h 35m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 10:39 → ORD 14:18AA 2559	49m Chicago	ORD 15:07 → ORF 18:31AA 4164 · flown by Envoy	5h 52m	68%	39%
American Details →	DEN 16:08 → CLT 21:30AA 1283	59m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → ORF 23:45AA 2674	5h 37m	54%	36%
American Details →	DEN 14:18 → CLT 19:29AA 1662	55m Charlotte	CLT 20:24 → ORF 21:45AA 5622 · flown by PSA	5h 27m	55%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON