Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1247 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–49%.

Safest bet that day UA 1247 DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1917 DEN 18:30 → PDX 20:16 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1247 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	PDX 09:48	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 3850 Southwest	DEN 08:30	PDX 10:19	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1316 Alaska	DEN 07:53	PDX 09:42	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 2553 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:56	PDX 11:58	16%	4%	0.7%	87%
UA 644 United Flight history →	DEN 11:27	PDX 13:09	17%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 2455 United Flight history →	DEN 13:27	PDX 15:13	20%	7%	0.7%	90%
WN 4071 Southwest	DEN 12:15	PDX 14:02	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1337 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	PDX 17:46	33%	13%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 1372 Alaska	DEN 15:06	PDX 16:54	33%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 498 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	PDX 21:15	34%	14%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
UA 1770 United Flight history →	DEN 21:30	PDX 23:13	35%	12%	0.8%	69%
WN 332 Southwest	DEN 15:25	PDX 17:13	37%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 3145 SkyWest	DEN 18:57	PDX 20:51	40%	14%	1.1%	no record
WN 184 Southwest	DEN 20:55	PDX 22:39	44%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 1917 Southwest	DEN 18:30	PDX 20:16	49%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON