Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 516 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–47%.

Safest bet that day AA 516 DEN 07:09 → PHL 12:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4253 DEN 19:05 → PHL 00:45 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 516 American Flight history →	DEN 07:09	PHL 12:58	11%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	PHL 15:12	17%	5%	0.6%	88%
AA 811 American	DEN 10:39	PHL 16:32	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1791 Southwest	DEN 10:30	PHL 16:11	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2787 United	DEN 13:59	PHL 19:47	30%	12%	0.7%	no record
AA 814 American	DEN 14:53	PHL 20:42	37%	18%	0.8%	no record
AA 2491 American Flight history →	DEN 13:13	PHL 19:10	37%	13%	0.8%	73%
WN 4558 Southwest	DEN 14:20	PHL 20:02	41%	15%	0.6%	no record
UA 1510 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	PHL 23:30	42%	17%	0.7%	58%
WN 4253 Southwest	DEN 19:05	PHL 00:45	47%	13%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON