Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 26 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 496 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 496 DEN 07:12 → PHX 08:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2105 DEN 21:10 → PHX 22:12 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 496 Southwest	DEN 07:12	PHX 08:10	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 1375 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:49	PHX 07:54	11%	4%	0.8%	84%
WN 547 Southwest	DEN 09:48	PHX 10:46	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1728 Southwest	DEN 08:02	PHX 09:00	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1404 American Flight history →	DEN 07:13	PHX 08:08	15%	6%	0.8%	80%
UA 1481 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PHX 09:00	16%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1782 United	DEN 09:57	PHX 11:04	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 8175 United	DEN 11:19	PHX 12:18	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1730 Southwest	DEN 11:03	PHX 12:01	24%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2602 American Flight history →	DEN 12:14	PHX 13:13	25%	12%	0.8%	36%
WN 574 Southwest	DEN 13:23	PHX 14:21	30%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 631 United Flight history →	DEN 13:28	PHX 14:25	31%	10%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
WN 1153 Southwest	DEN 14:20	PHX 15:17	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1254 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	PHX 16:35	32%	14%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
WN 153 Southwest	DEN 15:30	PHX 16:28	34%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 3308 Southwest	DEN 22:59	PHX 23:57	35%	11%	1.1%	no record
OO 4944 SkyWest	DEN 18:52	PHX 20:13	39%	17%	1.2%	no record
UA 1194 United	DEN 20:57	PHX 21:57	42%	18%	0.8%	no record
F9 4753 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:36	PHX 23:32	42%	15%	1.1%	68%
UA 1507 United	DEN 18:40	PHX 19:47	43%	20%	0.7%	no record
UA 2655 United	DEN 19:44	PHX 20:44	44%	18%	0.7%	no record
WN 527 Southwest	DEN 21:24	PHX 22:22	44%	14%	1.0%	no record
WN 1862 Southwest	DEN 20:33	PHX 21:31	46%	15%	1.0%	no record
WN 1734 Southwest	DEN 18:08	PHX 19:06	47%	15%	0.9%	no record
F9 4765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:43	PHX 19:48	50%	18%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
F9 2105 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:10	PHX 22:12	50%	18%	1.2%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON