tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 8118 United DEN 11:30 PNS 15:30 18% 7% 0.6% no record
F9 3930 Frontier Flight history → DEN 10:25 PNS 14:38 18% 7% 0.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 24m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640 5h 56m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 6h 58m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 3h 03m Houston IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa 7h 24m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 8h 12m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377 1h 00m Chicago ORD 10:42 → PNS 13:05UA 2492 6h 05m 93% 73%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:01 → CLT 15:12AA 3299 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 18:16 → PNS 19:10AA 5429 · flown by PSA 8h 09m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → DEN 15:10 → ATL 20:22DL 957 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807 7h 33m 94% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 1h 10m Houston IAH 20:20 → PNS 22:01UA 497 5h 26m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON