Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1742 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 49–51%.

Safest bet that day WN 1742 DEN 08:50 → PSP 10:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2644 DEN 19:21 → PSP 20:39 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1742 Southwest	DEN 08:50	PSP 10:06	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 687 United	DEN 11:12	PSP 12:29	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 305 SkyWest	DEN 15:46	PSP 17:10	33%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 3969 Southwest	DEN 21:40	PSP 22:57	49%	14%	0.9%	no record
UA 2644 United Flight history →	DEN 19:21	PSP 20:39	51%	18%	1.1%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON