Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 4674 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 4674 DEN 10:05 → RAP 11:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 2781 DEN 21:10 → RAP 22:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4674 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	RAP 11:30	16%	5%	0.8%	81%
UA 1585 United	DEN 11:08	RAP 12:26	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5556 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	RAP 14:46	20%	7%	0.8%	81%
UA 5891 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:53	RAP 16:29	25%	10%	0.8%	74%
UA 5303 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:16	RAP 22:52	25%	11%	1.3%	81%
UA 5225 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	RAP 19:24	33%	16%	1.1%	53%
UA 2781 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	RAP 22:25	38%	17%	0.7%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON