Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2269 at 09:49 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 2269 DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1874 DEN 19:35 → RDU 01:01 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2269 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	RDU 15:16	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 3486 Southwest	DEN 10:31	RDU 16:00	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2671 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	RDU 23:16	42%	15%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
WN 1874 Southwest	DEN 19:35	RDU 01:01	50%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON