Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 724 at 09:32 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 724 DEN 09:32 → RIC 14:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1534 DEN 17:50 → RIC 23:25 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 724 United	DEN 09:32	RIC 14:56	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 239 Southwest	DEN 13:35	RIC 18:53	32%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1534 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	RIC 23:25	44%	13%	0.7%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON