Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4298 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 4298 DEN 08:44 → RNO 10:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 719 DEN 19:25 → RNO 20:50 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4298 Southwest	DEN 08:44	RNO 10:09	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 5335 SkyWest	DEN 08:14	RNO 09:42	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2167 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	RNO 12:39	20%	6%	0.6%	87%
OO 4736 SkyWest	DEN 13:52	RNO 15:36	22%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 4257 Southwest	DEN 22:12	RNO 23:28	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 1745 Southwest	DEN 14:30	RNO 15:56	36%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 1604 United Flight history →	DEN 16:10	RNO 17:36	36%	15%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
UA 719 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	RNO 20:50	42%	15%	0.7%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON