Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1753 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 1753 DEN 06:55 → SAN 08:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1359 DEN 17:50 → SAN 19:14 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1753 Southwest	DEN 06:55	SAN 08:18	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 3751 United	DEN 07:10	SAN 08:40	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2309 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SAN 09:02	16%	6%	0.6%	90%
WN 1754 Southwest	DEN 08:59	SAN 10:18	21%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1940 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	SAN 12:41	26%	11%	0.6%	82%
OO 3120 SkyWest	DEN 09:47	SAN 11:16	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1302 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	SAN 14:55	29%	11%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
AS 1342 Alaska	DEN 12:31	SAN 13:56	31%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 1755 Southwest	DEN 12:10	SAN 13:37	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1281 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SAN 17:20	35%	16%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
F9 2817 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:21	SAN 15:52	37%	12%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
F9 2711 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:27	SAN 00:00	37%	11%	1.5%	81%worse than usual
UA 540 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	SAN 20:46	41%	17%	0.7%	65%
UA 2395 United	DEN 20:57	SAN 22:25	43%	17%	0.7%	no record
WN 854 Southwest	DEN 15:50	SAN 17:15	43%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 3097 Southwest	DEN 16:00	SAN 17:29	46%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 914 Southwest	DEN 21:35	SAN 23:05	48%	14%	0.8%	no record
AS 636 Alaska	DEN 18:59	SAN 20:24	48%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 1359 Southwest	DEN 17:50	SAN 19:14	52%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON