Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 671 at 11:26 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 671 DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 2479 DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 671 United Flight history →	DEN 11:26	SBA 13:02	22%	7%	0.8%	82%
WN 2301 Southwest	DEN 21:35	SBA 23:14	42%	11%	1.2%	no record
UA 2479 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SBA 20:59	44%	16%	1.1%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON