Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2367 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 2367 DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1773 DEN 18:35 → SFO 20:19 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2367 United Flight history →	DEN 05:15	SFO 06:53	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 2265 United	DEN 05:57	SFO 07:43	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 3435 Frontier	DEN 06:49	SFO 08:39	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1561 United Flight history →	DEN 11:21	SFO 13:04	25%	11%	0.5%	72%
UA 2391 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SFO 09:18	26%	8%	0.6%	71%
WN 4303 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:30	SFO 10:14	28%	7%	0.5%	10%
UA 1506 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	SFO 11:25	28%	10%	0.5%	48%
UA 1812 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SFO 15:09	29%	13%	0.6%	76%
F9 3439 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	SFO 00:23	34%	15%	0.8%	70%
UA 2633 United Flight history →	DEN 15:47	SFO 17:30	34%	17%	0.6%	73%
F9 1229 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:00	SFO 10:50	35%	13%	0.7%	66%
WN 1772 Southwest	DEN 13:30	SFO 15:15	41%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 2123 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	SFO 22:56	42%	15%	0.6%	60%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	SFO 19:40	43%	18%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
UA 1389 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	SFO 21:11	49%	18%	0.6%	44%
WN 3297 Southwest	DEN 21:35	SFO 23:17	50%	16%	0.6%	no record
WN 1773 Southwest	DEN 18:35	SFO 20:19	58%	22%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON