Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 497 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day OO 497 DEN 07:39 → SGF 10:38 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5687 DEN 20:45 → SGF 23:42 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 497 SkyWest	DEN 07:39	SGF 10:38	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5481 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:54	SGF 12:52	18%	7%	0.6%	84%
UA 4693 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	SGF 16:20	24%	10%	0.7%	85%
UA 5886 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:38	SGF 20:43	35%	17%	0.8%	71%
UA 5687 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:45	SGF 23:42	36%	15%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON